Electric is coming. Not if, When
03-31-2021, 08:54 PM
#361
Racer
I have a hunch that in the future, an increasing number of the thrill seekers among us will leave the road entirely and take to the skies in crazy electric aircraft.
The technology to do this is available now.
Some of the technology in EVs can be repurposed for flight.
The FAA will be biting their nails...
The technology to do this is available now.
Some of the technology in EVs can be repurposed for flight.
The FAA will be biting their nails...
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Michael A (04-01-2021)
03-31-2021, 11:06 PM
#362
Melting Slicks
Time will tell, but I don't think they will stop selling ICE cars before 2035. Most experts say they will still be around in 2050. I recall people predicting peak oil production had already passed. Wrong. I recall people saying V8 engines would be gone by the year 2000. Wrong.
Battery electric vehicles are not a viable replacement for ICE for:
1) Towing heady loads.
2) Most track use
3) Long distance travel
4) Back road driving
the last three fall under the Corvette category. So people don't want a BEV Corvette.
Battery electric vehicles are not a viable replacement for ICE for:
1) Towing heady loads.
2) Most track use
3) Long distance travel
4) Back road driving
the last three fall under the Corvette category. So people don't want a BEV Corvette.
Making all electric trucks I think will be the greatest challenge. They will pretty much have to double the battery density to make electric trucks viable - although a hybrid could have a lot of benefits for a work truck - 110 and 220 outlets running power equipment. But the problem will be as ICE sales start to drop they will reach a point when a particular "ICE CAR" is no longer viable to continue producing.
As to the BEV Corvette, except for the sound, in objective performance it should be better in every way.
04-01-2021, 12:14 AM
#363
Fuel for thought. You may have no choice but change, if your options are limited.
By 1994 there were over 202,800 stations across the country. But, by 2013 the number of service stations had shrunk by 25 percent. What happened?
The future:
Gas stations have had an astounding run. But as EV’s and mobile fuel delivery companies become increasingly popular, and as pre-existing market trends continue, gas stations will continue to fold at a rapid pace. The largest and strongest will survive, causing there to be longer distances between filling stations. The detour to the local gas station (which may not be so “local”) will become more painful, leaving EV-owners to revel in their foresight and mobile fueling customers only too happy to employ a service to take care of the increasingly onerous chore of filling-up the car.
Retail gas sales are still a huge part of the economy. Almost 40 million Americans fill-up every day with gas purchases representing approximately five percent of all consumer spending. However, the sector is in the midst of tectonic changes that will permanently change the refueling infrastructure in this country. Gas stations, ultimately, are subject to the same technology, sentiment and behavior shifts that affect all other sectors of the economy. They must either adapt or die.....as the consumer market changes.
Gas stations will disappear sooner than you think. Adapted from The Hill, Oct 2017
By 1994 there were over 202,800 stations across the country. But, by 2013 the number of service stations had shrunk by 25 percent. What happened?
The future:
Gas stations have had an astounding run. But as EV’s and mobile fuel delivery companies become increasingly popular, and as pre-existing market trends continue, gas stations will continue to fold at a rapid pace. The largest and strongest will survive, causing there to be longer distances between filling stations. The detour to the local gas station (which may not be so “local”) will become more painful, leaving EV-owners to revel in their foresight and mobile fueling customers only too happy to employ a service to take care of the increasingly onerous chore of filling-up the car.
Retail gas sales are still a huge part of the economy. Almost 40 million Americans fill-up every day with gas purchases representing approximately five percent of all consumer spending. However, the sector is in the midst of tectonic changes that will permanently change the refueling infrastructure in this country. Gas stations, ultimately, are subject to the same technology, sentiment and behavior shifts that affect all other sectors of the economy. They must either adapt or die.....as the consumer market changes.
Gas stations will disappear sooner than you think. Adapted from The Hill, Oct 2017
The reduced number of gas stations had more to do with the cost to comply with federal regulations requiring secondary containment for underground gasoline tanks. Mom and pop stations could not afford to shut down their station and replace the old tanks with new tanks and monitoring wells. Now we have more supersized gas stations on the interstate highways than ever. Gasoline sales have increased in this country on average about 1.5% per year, with the exception of recession years in 2008 and 2020.
Think of transportation fuels as liquid freedom, allowing a person to venture anywhere there are roads and even where there are no roads. People love freedom. People love mobility.
As for the risk to damaging the the world’s climate, I’m not convinced that a molecule that only makes up less than 0.05% of the atmosphere is going to overheat the planet. I say Stop Global Whining.
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Michael A (04-01-2021)
04-01-2021, 12:55 AM
#364
Le Mans Master
#1 will certainly be the toughest problem. #2 not really part of the equation for a company to build a car. #3 soon to be a non issue. #4 will not be an issue in 10 years.
Making all electric trucks I think will be the greatest challenge. They will pretty much have to double the battery density to make electric trucks viable - although a hybrid could have a lot of benefits for a work truck - 110 and 220 outlets running power equipment. But the problem will be as ICE sales start to drop they will reach a point when a particular "ICE CAR" is no longer viable to continue producing.
As to the BEV Corvette, except for the sound, in objective performance it should be better in every way.
Making all electric trucks I think will be the greatest challenge. They will pretty much have to double the battery density to make electric trucks viable - although a hybrid could have a lot of benefits for a work truck - 110 and 220 outlets running power equipment. But the problem will be as ICE sales start to drop they will reach a point when a particular "ICE CAR" is no longer viable to continue producing.
As to the BEV Corvette, except for the sound, in objective performance it should be better in every way.
Last edited by Michael A; 04-01-2021 at 12:58 AM.
04-01-2021, 06:27 AM
#365
This is propaganda. You can't change physics. I've already pointed out the physics about why every one of those items cannot be overcome because (A) there is not enough energy in the batteries, and (B) they physically can't be charged fast enough. I already did the math for you.."Believing" doesn't get the numbers to work.
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msm859 (04-01-2021)
04-01-2021, 06:37 AM
#366
Le Mans Master
Thread Starter
Support for the impossible is part of the proposed infrastructure plan. Again way too much politics. I started this stating what was happening, not the merits plus or minus. Again, Electric is coming, Not if when.
This should be
.
This should be
.
04-01-2021, 06:57 AM
#367
Fuel for thought. You may have no choice but change, if your options are limited.
By 1994 there were over 202,800 stations across the country. But, by 2013 the number of service stations had shrunk by 25 percent. What happened?
The future:
Gas stations have had an astounding run. But as EV’s and mobile fuel delivery companies become increasingly popular, and as pre-existing market trends continue, gas stations will continue to fold at a rapid pace. The largest and strongest will survive, causing there to be longer distances between filling stations. The detour to the local gas station (which may not be so “local”) will become more painful, leaving EV-owners to revel in their foresight and mobile fueling customers only too happy to employ a service to take care of the increasingly onerous chore of filling-up the car.
Retail gas sales are still a huge part of the economy. Almost 40 million Americans fill-up every day with gas purchases representing approximately five percent of all consumer spending. However, the sector is in the midst of tectonic changes that will permanently change the refueling infrastructure in this country. Gas stations, ultimately, are subject to the same technology, sentiment and behavior shifts that affect all other sectors of the economy. They must either adapt or die.....as the consumer market changes.
Gas stations will disappear sooner than you think. Adapted from The Hill, Oct 2017
By 1994 there were over 202,800 stations across the country. But, by 2013 the number of service stations had shrunk by 25 percent. What happened?
The future:
Gas stations have had an astounding run. But as EV’s and mobile fuel delivery companies become increasingly popular, and as pre-existing market trends continue, gas stations will continue to fold at a rapid pace. The largest and strongest will survive, causing there to be longer distances between filling stations. The detour to the local gas station (which may not be so “local”) will become more painful, leaving EV-owners to revel in their foresight and mobile fueling customers only too happy to employ a service to take care of the increasingly onerous chore of filling-up the car.
Retail gas sales are still a huge part of the economy. Almost 40 million Americans fill-up every day with gas purchases representing approximately five percent of all consumer spending. However, the sector is in the midst of tectonic changes that will permanently change the refueling infrastructure in this country. Gas stations, ultimately, are subject to the same technology, sentiment and behavior shifts that affect all other sectors of the economy. They must either adapt or die.....as the consumer market changes.
Gas stations will disappear sooner than you think. Adapted from The Hill, Oct 2017
If one were to go by actual changing consumer automotive sales habits, the “impending doom” of the future that Corvette enthusiast should be concerned with is at the rate of SUV/CUV/Truck adoption, those may be your only choices long before you get forced into an EV.
04-01-2021, 07:03 AM
#368
I have a hunch that in the future, an increasing number of the thrill seekers among us will leave the road entirely and take to the skies in crazy electric aircraft.
The technology to do this is available now.
Some of the technology in EVs can be repurposed for flight.
The FAA will be biting their nails...
The technology to do this is available now.
Some of the technology in EVs can be repurposed for flight.
The FAA will be biting their nails...
04-01-2021, 08:55 AM
#369
#1 will certainly be the toughest problem. #2 not really part of the equation for a company to build a car. #3 soon to be a non issue. #4 will not be an issue in 10 years.
Making all electric trucks I think will be the greatest challenge. They will pretty much have to double the battery density to make electric trucks viable - although a hybrid could have a lot of benefits for a work truck - 110 and 220 outlets running power equipment. But the problem will be as ICE sales start to drop they will reach a point when a particular "ICE CAR" is no longer viable to continue producing.
As to the BEV Corvette, except for the sound, in objective performance it should be better in every way.
Making all electric trucks I think will be the greatest challenge. They will pretty much have to double the battery density to make electric trucks viable - although a hybrid could have a lot of benefits for a work truck - 110 and 220 outlets running power equipment. But the problem will be as ICE sales start to drop they will reach a point when a particular "ICE CAR" is no longer viable to continue producing.
As to the BEV Corvette, except for the sound, in objective performance it should be better in every way.
The advantages of low end instant torque give way to the terrible energy density and poorer power to weight ratios. Formula E for example tops out 100mph less than their Formula 1 counterparts, and instead of recharging, they just swap cars. And of course there’s no exhaust sound which makes it as exciting as watching a golf cart race. The sights, sounds, and smells of motor sports just become sights alone.
04-01-2021, 09:15 AM
#370
That’s the problem. Rather than standing on consumer preference and the free market, the impending “electric is coming for us” warning depends on a multi trillion dollar investment from a heavily fractured government over multiple election cycles.
04-01-2021, 05:44 PM
#371
Melting Slicks
There’s common misconception I think due to EV drag racing stats, that they excel at all motor sports. EV’s don’t really compete well on a track outside of drag racing. Might pull off a lap or two, but to sustain that kind of power output, the battery would need a more robust cooling system to handle the heat from rapid depletion, and be massive enough to have enough energy to last multiple laps. Track duty would most certainly shorten the life of the battery pack.
The advantages of low end instant torque give way to the terrible energy density and poorer power to weight ratios. Formula E for example tops out 100mph less than their Formula 1 counterparts, and instead of recharging, they just swap cars. And of course there’s no exhaust sound which makes it as exciting as watching a golf cart race. The sights, sounds, and smells of motor sports just become sights alone.
The advantages of low end instant torque give way to the terrible energy density and poorer power to weight ratios. Formula E for example tops out 100mph less than their Formula 1 counterparts, and instead of recharging, they just swap cars. And of course there’s no exhaust sound which makes it as exciting as watching a golf cart race. The sights, sounds, and smells of motor sports just become sights alone.
04-01-2021, 05:48 PM
#372
What naysayers ever said that? Citation please.
04-01-2021, 06:15 PM
#375
04-01-2021, 06:21 PM
#376
I have no desire to prove your claim for you. I didn't make it.
Its okay to say you made a baseless claim. Wouldn't be the first time on the internet someone has done this, I am sure I am guilty of it too.
It just seems that people want to talk about "they", and when they get called out on who is "they", they have nothing.
No need to make a claim, have nothing to back up said claim or position, and blame the person who questions their false info.
Its all good.
04-01-2021, 06:39 PM
#377
Okay boomer!
I have no desire to prove your claim for you. I didn't make it.
Its okay to say you made a baseless claim. Wouldn't be the first time on the internet someone has done this, I am sure I am guilty of it too.
It just seems that people want to talk about "they", and when they get called out on who is "they", they have nothing.
No need to make a claim, have nothing to back up said claim or position, and blame the person who questions their false info.
Its all good.
I have no desire to prove your claim for you. I didn't make it.
Its okay to say you made a baseless claim. Wouldn't be the first time on the internet someone has done this, I am sure I am guilty of it too.
It just seems that people want to talk about "they", and when they get called out on who is "they", they have nothing.
No need to make a claim, have nothing to back up said claim or position, and blame the person who questions their false info.
Its all good.
04-01-2021, 06:47 PM
#378
Probably all true - for now. But none of that is going to be part of the equation for GM or Ford or any other major manufacturer in deciding what cars to produce ICE vs PHEV vs BEV. BEV's are coming - not if but when. And I suspect that once BEV's become the majority of sales we will see a rapid drop off of ICE cars. Trucks might be a different story. I can see PHEV's hanging around longer. Motor sports might also be a different story - although I don't believe it will because of "sound". If that important that would be an easy fix. Lip singing anyone?
04-01-2021, 06:53 PM
#379
Most people probably didn’t know what a computer was back then at all, much less have an opinion of what it would shrink down to in the future. People back them were obsessed with predicting more fun things like space colonies and flying cars. None of which of course happened when they thought they would. Look at far off base Back to the Future had 2015.
Back in the 70’s didn’t they think we’re all going to be driving compact hatchbacks ?
Back in the 70’s didn’t they think we’re all going to be driving compact hatchbacks ?
Last edited by Majestic94; 04-01-2021 at 07:05 PM.
04-01-2021, 07:07 PM
#380
Melting Slicks
I know we’re all pretending to read a crystal ball here, but you’re making a pretty confident prediction based on unrealistic political stability and unity over the coming decades, some miracle technology break throughs, miracle unified consumer acceptance in odd subjective things like “one pedal driving” and a complete acceptance of synthesized engine sounds on motor sports. That’s a lot of miracles man.