1KULC7

I originally posted this under response of the Pebble Beach Post, but after reading it thought it might be of a more general interesting topic for people to read and comment.

After standing by reading, listening, and putting all of this together the past several years, waiting for the C7 to arrive I have com to some conclusions based on trends in our economy, and society.

IMHO, I think this is the beginning of the end of the Corvette line. Don't call me Dr. Doom, and please read this post with and OPEN mind.

I think there are many reasons why you did not see Corvette represented by GM at the Pebble Beach, and if you really look back during the run of the C6 generation, you plainly see the Corvette not making many of the high end shows around the works, sure you may have one or two, but you do not have that same publicity you seen with the C5. I think its as plain as the nose on your face why this is happening. Only a year ago, there was talk about dropping the Corvette Race Program...that managed to squeek by another couple of years. But remember Joh Moss and the Special Vehicile Development Department at GM....GONE. DId you know GM is going into its warehouses and selling more and more of its stored cars? Remember the loss of Pontiac, Olds, Hummer, etc., all gone. There is a trend here, and its NOT just because GM is still underwater. GM is re-inveting itself and its products. You will see more GM products released in CHINA the next few years and then making there way to the US. GM is becoming GLOBAL, and cuts will be made to make this company profitable, and yes I am afraid, CORVETTE will be a victim of GM having to be profitable. GM just cannot afford the luxury of these shows anymore.... Boring adds, means less creative PR company, less creative means cheaper to hire. They are not getting the message out us CAR people want to hear, but they are getting a message out to the PUBLIC.

My other reasons are this, first and formost, US regulation for saftey and gas consumtion are going to get much worse in the next few years. Sorry but this is going to remain a problem, as gas increases in price, even a Corvette getting 34 MPG will not be able to compete with cars getting 50 plus MPG and Gas prices over $10.00/gallon. Several EPA/DOE studies have shown, if the US DOES NOT tap its own resources, and remains dependent upon foreign oil sources, prices will raise or double the current prices in less then 6 years. Growth and demand will remain high in China and Inda, and more developing countries in Africa, and South America will increase its appetite for oil products.

Amercian Economy, Middle Class purchase power is declining and will continue to decline, and the Corvette has always been aimed to the upper middle class. Camaro will and is going to outsell Corvette, for performance cars. Simply put, middle class has less disposible income to pay for a second car that costs an average of $60,000. Especially when food, gas, utilities, health care, and other living expenses continue to increase at a 5% annual rate. I am sure a report will be released soon stating the US Middle Class is shrinking, and they are not going to the upper class. Welfare, Food Stamps and other Federal programs have almost doubled in the past 5 years. This is not a good sign..

More reasons the recent poll plainly indicates GM tends to market the Corvette to the 30-40 age group, yet the 50-60+ is still the largest customer base.

The 50-60+ folks who purchase the car, its there version of own a Caddy, like their fathers inspired to do. So as the 50-60 folks get older, sales will drop, simple fact, age. I know there will be exceptions, but I am talking bulk here.

While the 40-50 group move into the 50-60+ group, I am SURE there version of a dream car will be Luxury Coupes, because that is what they admired when they were young... So BMW, MB, Jaguar, Lexus, etc. HIGH END cars will file that spot, and yes Caddy will make a big comeback here.

So you can see where this trend is going, GM is going to have a very expensive Sports Car, they will be unable to market or sell in great enough numbers to make it profitable.

Next reason, GM does NOT listen to its customers, it listens to its bean counters. How many years have Corvette owners cried out to Chevy to produce a better interior, not a cheap plastic interior, but something on the lines of a 70K sports car, or luxury sedan. Has GM EVER delivered this? NO, and again why? Simply put, GM and Chevy focused on car performance and horsepower, and knowing it current market, knew this would sell the car, and they are willing to take the complaints about the interior, because NOBODY is not going to buy the car because of the interior, but would NOT buy this car if it had less or inferior HP or Performance. So as we go into the C7, you will hear GM/Chevy talk about the entirely refashioned interior, but take a close look at what you have, most likely more plastic carbon fiber, fancier look, but same materials, wolf in sheep's clothing. Because GM DOES NOT want to add more expense while keeping the HP and Performance alive.

Certain new trend will happen during the C7 such as you will start to see a decline during the third year of generation release. There will be a C8 and that is when you will see Corvette in the survival mode, much smaller, less HP, and much more inexpensive, dropping this down to the $40K range.

Mark my words, this is the direction of the Corvette, and I truely believe the C8 will be the last generation of Corvette as we know it, it will meet its demise.

Look, I am a proud Corvette owner, have 2 of them, and am like every other Corvette owner, couting the days for the release of the C7, but I also do not keep my head in the sand, and analyze the intelligence that is out there. Like EVERY automobile name plate, Corvette will have a run, and its run is coming to a close.

OK let the flamming begin..... but when you do flame, please understand I am basing this on a trend over the past six or seven years, keep this in mind.

blitzebill

if you haven't read the book, "All Corvettes are Red," get a copy and see how the Corvette almost died 20 twenty years ago.

And look how it turned lo these 20 years later.

GM will never let the Corvette die.

punky

They may need 25 thousand dollar rebates to keep it alive. The prices of these cars has gone out of sight. I looked at a new coupe the other day, nice car, 68 thousand dollars, get real. That kinda pricing won't work and obviously isn't working. Anyone who disagrees need only look at their sales volume.

Suttleone

After reading this post I realized that, with little modification, the writer could use the same argument to to predict the demise of perfume, expensive watches, or a dozen different items marketed to potential buyers of style or type that are not necessarily utilitarian. The last time the auto industry tried this type of thinking was in the Stemple years or the K car. Change this post to any other esoteric item and use similar rationale and you will see how easy it is to predict doom for just about anything.

1KULC7

I have and read the book many times, but what happened in the 70's and 80's dwarfs in comparison on what we are facing now and the immediate future. GM was NOT underwater during that time, still profitable and stocks were stable.

I even bought a 1976 Corvette, and lived through all those times. But today our economy, world, and increase in government regulations are playing a much more critical role on the future of these cars. I lived through all the crisis from the gas shortages of 1973 through 80's etc. and naturally have seen the Corvette rebound, but again ask WHY? Because the baby boomer generation saved it. Will generation X and Y save it? Will they be financial able to save it?

Again keep open mind

BAblackvette

On a side note, I find myself staring at your avatar for far too long!

Varcix

You make valid points, but it's all conjecture, the Vette is here to stay for many years to come, and I see no reason to assume the C8 isn't already in planning stage as the top executives have already hinted to. The only reason the C6 stayed around so long is the financial crisis, and for how long it lasted that was the RIGHT decision. But now if they want to pick up and move past the crisis and become a leader again, they must invest in one of their core competencies which of course has been the "king of the road" corvette engine. There is no reason engines cannot be built to be more environment friendly, someone will figure it out, and let's hope Chevy is smart enough to find those talented engineers. Increase profits by selling the Vette overseas more...make twice the money, it's evident the Vette is here to stay in the US and all over the world to continue to build on the success and profitability of this amazing car!

1KULC7

The market for perfume, expensive watche and dozen other high end items still cost less that a $65K Sports Car. Even these items have modified themselves to be produced cheaper, sold cheaper (even though the are still very expensive).

Rolex Submariner Watch, Cost in 1980 was $1800, production that year was approximatley 25 thousand.
Rolex Submariner Watch, Cost in 2011 is average is about $5K production for 2011, less then 10 thousand worldwide.

Vintage Sumbariner Watch from 1980, resale value about $18k in good condition.

Difference, Rolex changed the technology of assembling the watch and much of the interals are not metal but high grade nylon, vintage watches were still hand assembled and all metal.

Rolex adjusted to the changing times if you add inflation you will find the watch price in proportion is about the same price as 1980 but using less expensive labor and pieces to assemble

1KULC7

Very good comeback and I hope you are right, but as you state, research costs money, as the government passes more and more regulations for safety, especially if they do go with "talking cars" this could very much put a cramp on the Corvette.

Above all its the acceptance by the public and the ability of the public to have the funds to purchase this car.

Here is a question, are cars as importent to the American Public as they were 50 years ago? Are they still the status symbol for success? Or has the American Public changed its attitude to I need a car to get around in as basic transportation and to carry a ton of things in the back, and have good gas milage, and cheap to insure, and cheap to maintain?

There is always going to be car people, but the car people we know, ones who love muscle cars, Corvettes, Sport Cars, are really decreasing in numbers, and more a going over the the Luxury Sport Sedan, rather than the two seat sports car.

Again just keep open mind and take a good hard look at what is on the road today, now what was on the road 20 years ago, cars were larger, less SUVs, more sedans, sports cars, etc. Today, Trucks, SUV, and Sedans, in between you might see Camaro, stang, or Challenger, even the Charger is a 4 door Sedan. Corvettes, you see on weekends, not like you use to see as dailly commuters. Its out there just look.

I like your response and I hope you are right..

blitzebill

Re-read that book my friend, GM was way UNDERWATER back then in the late 80s and early to mid 90s (losses were in the billions), and even in 1992 alone dumped CEOs 3 times. The Corvette program was pushed back so many times, John Cafaro, one of the major Corvette designers, thought he saw the writing on the wall and everyone at GM expected Corvette to get the axe and never come back.

blitzebill

lol....that's Krystal Forscutt, an Australian model...nice eye candy!

1KULC7

They did not go bankrupt, and did not need Federal Assistance to a point the Feds own part of the company. They still have not gotten out.

Stocks although they dropped were not worthless.

It was NOT the Corvette that brought them back. It was the increase in quality of their SUV and Truck Line that got them out of the hole. Sure Corvette got better and increased sales, so did the economy that allowed middle class to have more desposible income, ie 2003 through 2007. One of the largest production years for Corvette was 1976, yet many of the cars of that year were sold in 1977 because people did not purchase them.

1KULC7

Yep that my 63, I love it....

1KULC7

One other note, and that was about the same time the Baby Boomer generation reached its peak in annual income. The same generation that drooled over the Corvettes in the sixties and early seventies as they were having families now found themselves as empty nesters, with disposible income, and what car did they want, not the Caddy like Dad, but that Corvette they envied when they were young.

Slynky

Yeah, I would agree to a point--and I realize it's a matter of preference in design--but her a-pillars are a bit too big for my tastes...

Slynky

(or if I was younger... WERD!)

NSC5

Well, the average new car price is a tad above 30K for 2012. A basic pickup truck, sort of the utility infielder of the domestic automotive world, is about 29K with the basic equipment and a 3/4 ton crew cab 4X4 diesel like mine is well above the 50K mark.

In 1947 the average new car price was around 65 percent of the average family income. It hit a low of around 36% in the 1970s/early 80s. Today it is up somewhere over 50% again. Of course the average new car today has a lot more equipment (comfort, safety, and emissions) than the cars of old so there really is no perfect way to compare across time.

But is a 60K+ Corvette priced too high for the market? Someone going into the Chevy dealership for a Cruze or a Malibu isn't likely to drive home in a Corvette because in most cases that buyer is focused heavily on a fairly utilitarian vehicle. My wife has a Malibu because for her a car is the way to get from point A to point B as long at the two points are close to one another and otherwise she flies. I have always loved long road trips and have become even less enamored with flying in the "cattle car" era of post-deregulation air travel. A C7 will be the third vehicle for me and not a daily driver, the CTS and GMC Sierra will continue to fulfill that role and the C7 will be more of a fun road trip car. I am retiring in a couple of years and a new C7 will be the car my daughter (who also loves car travel) and I will do more exploring in before she hits the teenage years and no longer wants to travel with dad But I don't plan to teach her how to drive using the Corvette, maybe the John Deere tractor (with a top speed of about 25 MPH in road gear) will fulfill that role.

I won't even try to justify the purchase of a C7 to myself or anyone else in utilitarian economic terms; the closest I can come is the observation that after driving 900 miles in a day I feel great but if I spent even half of this drive time "participating" in the airline travel experience I would need a hot shower, several shots of good Bourbon, and a comfortable bed in very short order.

Designing a Corvette with the potential of high sales volume will result in a vehicle that creates far more angst than an entire back end full of rectangular tail lights. The current "good, better, best" models with the most expensive selling for a tad more than twice the least expensive is already pushing it in keeping a fairly coherent image for the model. Add in an economy Vette (or a 4 seat family version) and you have a product offering idea worthy of the genius who brought us the Cadillac Cimarron. A desirable product image is very easy to destroy and very difficult and expensive to rebuild. The Corvette can continue to be an important image enhancer for the overall Chevrolet line, a place to develop technology that trickles down to the other lines at lower cost after being subsidized by less price sensitive purchasers, and a reasonable volume niche offering. Like everything else it will have to undergo continuous change because its environment is changing. Having a high end two seat Cadillac convertible that shares the basic framework of the Corvette would fill a hole in that line and would allow more complete utilization of capacity at BG.

frost2

If you think $68K is bad look at some other cars like the Viper and 911. I was reading that the new Viper will cost about a $100K and the new 911s sticker well over $100K when you add in the price of the costly options.

jackhall99

So let's twist your post to apply to - TADA, Porsches! And Jags. And Ferraris and Lambos. And Astons. And all other cars that cost $65K or more and that get less than 34MPG, or whatever your magic number is.

The Corvette will be with us for a while, IMHO.

MythMaker

I predict the C8 corvette will be an all electric car.