Seaside63

With increases in interest rates and new housing starts falling rapidly, many are predicting an end to the recent housing price bubble.

I believe that the fuel that pushed up collector car prices was the easy equity money people pulled out of their houses at low rates.

Led by B-J fever, it seems everything from Hemi-Cudas and 435hp '67 Vettes all the way down to common '65 Falcons and Chevy Novas were all going price crazy. Speculation abounds.

Am I the only one predicting an upcoming crash in the prices of collector cars?

We've seen it before. During a major recession, money seems to flow into collectables only to be yanked out at the first sign of softness.

The Barrett-Jackson "Gold Chain Crowd" may be running for the exits.

I am one of those that see a crash in values as a good thing since parts and services will have to follow. I think old cars should be cheap as dirt so only true hobbiests will "waste" their time.

jimgessner

I tend to agree, but so far the market is very strong. You still can't find any really nice cars for sale. And those good ones we do find, are being sold for record prices.

Many are waiting for Barrett- Jackson. It will be interesting to see how many people have to buy back their 'no reserve' car. This year, the auction has been extended one day, so now 200 cars per day starting Tuesday January 20 thru Sunday the 25th. Lack of prime time Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday ought to be real interesting days.

Loren Smith

I for one hopes it drops. The cheaper collector Corvettes get, the greater the chance I can have to own another. The whole craze has driven up prices for parts, as well. When the speculators and investors flee the market, there are more cars available for the enthusiasts.

ismithlj

I think it would be great if values drop. My car is not an investment and I have no plans to sell it. I think the investors should stick to wall street and leave the cars to people who appreciate them.

78Vette-SA

Reluctantly I've decided to put my 63 up for sale so I hope values/prices hold out until it's gone!

Plastic Pig

I would love to see a crash in values.

My opinion is that I don't think its gonna happen anytime soon. Look at the age of most buyers and the money they are spending. These guys for the most part aren't borrowing money against their house to buy a 200k toy. Interest rates and market changes don't effect them much, as they have made their money and want to enjoy it. The people with the most money to burn right now are the guys most likely have nostalgic feelings about these cars. These were the cars the wanted in their youth and couldn't afford and now they know they better get it before its to late. There are a whole lot of people out there like this and not so many cars.

Now, fast forward 10-15 years and who will be pining for these cars ? Fast forward 15-30 years and subarus, hondas, and Mitsu's will be all the rage at BJ as vintage vettes will lose their following. I know at 38 I don't meet many people my age that are into solid axles. The kids at work, while they think my car is cool wouldn't give it a second look in lot of winged and blinged Evo's, WRX's and turbo Neons.

I also don't think the C5 crowd is going to wax nostalgic about the cars and still want them. They are for the most part a different breed and will be driving the latest and greatest thing. While Impressive the new cars do not have Zora Duntov, Ed Cole, Bill Mitchell, et al. They don't have a production based racing history with the back door parts deals, interesting drivers and wonderful stories about the infancy of Corvette racing. While impressive no doubt, the story of the C5R's winning LeMans doesn't hold a candle to the the first in class in 60' I just don't feel the passion is there for these cars. The C5, 8 years without a body or interior change of any kind ? No fuel injected 4spds, no teeth, no trunk spears, or pebble grain interiors, no HD brakes, 097 or 30-30 cams, no glimpse into the future rear ends, no split windows, 36 gallon tanks, or 396's 427's or L88's. No soul. I don't think the wheel changes, FRC's, and Z06 are gonna cut it.

I think the new Z06 will make it as a classic one day.

JMHO

Rair67

The housing market ballon is going to burst at some point according to most economists. Even then, some markets such as here in SW Florida are forecasted to stay strong for at least another 10 years. Collector car prices have been inflated to insane levels by the auctioneers and many other people looking for a fast buck.

IMO, the collector car market may well take a dip in the near future, but like the stock market, the long term outlook will probably be upwards, if for no other reasons than inflation and the "limited" supply of true collector vehicles.

bronze68

Over the past several months I've seen many predictions for a drop in values. So far it hasn't occured. I wouldn't mind a price dip to add to the collection but I'm less optimistic that it will be happening any time soon.

JWD01

I agree. Remember the early 90's? Cars that sold for $100K the year before were now going for half that amount.

JSB69

I'm not sure I agree that the rise in interest rates will hit our market as much as it will hit real estate. It is not unusual for real estate to be financed since the dollars involved are very large. There are many people who bought properties to "flip" them, that really cannot afford to pay for them over the long run. The number of listings where the property is owned by a realtor is growing daily in areas where this info is required to be disclosed. Many of these are financed with interest only notes. I have been discussing a property this week that is showing signs of pressure on the owner by a couple of rapid reductions in the listing price. It is usually distress sales that drive the markets down and I don't believe nearly as high a percentage of collector cars are financed and very few, interest only. My guess is that the rapid escalation in our market is coming to an end, but there will not be a crash.

bb62

I'm not too sure that prices will ever be reduced in the long term Here's my reasoning:

1. The Early 1990s recession that cut the prices of collector cars in half did so because there were other outlets for investment dollars. Real estate was fairly stable and the stock markets was recovering from the crash in 87 – but it was believed to be a long term bull market returning after a "correction". The point is that many people felt that they had other places to put their money other than in collector cars. Today on the other hand we have a fairly robust economy with no signs of a recession, a real estate bubble, and a weak market only slowly recovering from the crash in 2001. So given that neither the market nor real estate seems to be good places to spend money other outlets will present themselves – like collector cars. Other collector items are also booming.
2. While I understand the thought process for why old Corvettes in 30 years may not be worth anything since the generation that loved them is dying off, consider that values of pre-war specialty cars is also way up – and who alive now ever pined over a 1920s Mercer? Corvettes have a loyalty that transcends age. Many C4 owners I know (who are in their 20s today) would love to own a C2 but can't because they are too expensive. Because GM keeps making Corvettes, there will always be a market for the early ones – especially the performance variants. Besides, how many 70+ year olds are driving 56 or 57 Corvettes? Most are owned by people far younger.
3. For comparison compare contemporary Corvettes with First Generation T'Birds. The performance reputation of Corvettes plus the link to today keep Corvettes far more valuable.
4. The cars that will disappear from the collector scene are those with no tie to the present. I personally see no end to the fascination with Corvettes because of their "Sports Car" heritage much the same way that early Porsches and Ferraris will always maintain a market. Even pre-war Bugattis are mega-expensive and will always remain so. The cars that I see with little long term value are the Chevelles and Camaros (except for the cars with some racing heritage) from GM.
5. The weeding out process will separate out the 30s Buicks (i.e. little long term value) from the Pierce Arrows (long term value cars like Corvettes) because of their perceived heritage.

tdelph

The prices on old vettes arent going down. You want to know why? Because i want to buy another project and the prices for projects are just too high. If I didnt want to buy anything the prices would fall.

Doughan

I have been watching C2 prices closely for the last 4 years and have seen some slight drops in price on non BB or Fuelie cars. I don't believe there will be a huge drop in prices. I am in my late 30s and think the C1 and C2 Corvettes are the greatest Corvettes built. I own a C5 and plan on owning a C2 next Fall if all goes well. I believe the 53-75 Corvettes will continue to be sought after from now until there is no more oil to be refined. Anything after 75 will never be collectible due to the large numbers produced.

GCD1962

"Anything after 75 will never be collectible due to the large numbers produced" No doubt others said the same about Model A Fords and 55-57 Chevs. People will collect C5s, C6s, and even the new Chrysler Hemi cars - it will just take some time, just as it did for the C1 & C2. I bought my '62 for $1,000 in 1972 (the going rate) and a friend of mine bought a '65 396-425hp for a little over $1,000 in the early 70s.

Doughan

Most collectors go by the 20 year rule I believe. Look at 1984 Corvettes. They are the cheapest Vettes available. 75-82 Corvettes are now 25 to 30 years old. The prices are no where near even 70-72 prices. I only throw in 75 because of the last year of the Vert. 75 Coupes are not collectible as a rule. While pristine examples and perhaps the Pace Car replicas will have value, it will be a long time indeed before you see a craze of 84-87 Vettes being completely and meticulously restored like you see in the 53-75 Vettes.

GCD1962

IMO I think the75-95 Corvettes are all worthless (I'm sure to make all those owners mad) as the quality, styling etc were all crap. I agree with you that all "old" cars are not collectible to the point where demand raises prices, but people still collect them. My point was that I believe the C5s and C6s will be collectible, because of styling, performance, and, are you ready for this one, I think they will be the last in the Corvette series for GM as I don't think the marque survives another five years, and I don't believe GM as we know it today will survive more than 10 years. Corvette is super prestige for GM and it does make some money, however it is not enough money to fuel all the costs facing the corporation. In the end there will only be Chev and Cadillac and all the cars that are offered in those marques will have to be super mass-produced models in order to make money. Plain and simple, the world has too much excess auto producing capacity and when China gets geared up to export autos something will have to give and the ineffcient and cost heavy companys such as GM just won't make it - again to all, just me feeling

Norman Teegardin

My 61 Vette is not for sale at any price. When I was 16 I couldn't afford a Vette. But now I am 60 and the best is still ahead. Remember the baby boomers are still to come. Just my thought.

Norm

Doughan

I hope you're wrong about GM's future! I agree that drastic measures are going to have to take place though. I have heard that either Pontiac or Buick may soon have the same fate as Oldsmobile.

I hope that major concessions/abolishment of the unions and debt restructuring will help solve GM's problems in the short-term.

64roadster

Our company has a collector car expert that writes articles for many publications and he also makes appearances on Speed Vision. He recently shared his expectations that quality muscle cars will continue to be in demand and will continue to appreciate in value. He does not think higher gas prices nor interest rates will negatively affect our cars.

vettnut

A friend of mine took 3 of his corvettes (58-60-61)to the NACE show last week. NACE coincides with the SEMA show in Las Vegas at The Mandalay Bay Casino. He sat with his corvettes. He said the Orientals were nuts for his straight axles. Especially his Maroon 60 fuelly. It is the first corvette he had Pro. restored here in Bismarck. OK, he was offered, more than once, $150,000.00 for the 60 by these same Orientals. He called me to encourage me to restore my 60 in the weeds car. I asked my friend if he was tempted to sell, he stated emphatically NO. Gas prices, IMO, won't bother these collector car prices because we don't drive them enough for it to matter. Have a great day!