Tracking GMers order status changes
09-01-2013, 12:51 AM
#1
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Tracking GMers order status changes
Updated, 9/5 at 9:00 PM CST
Many of us are addicted to the Herculean task that GMer is accomplishing for us.
There are 240 lucky ones who got in early and get to watch our orders progress (or not) thru the system. Being one of them I just had to recap the changes and start to accumulate some data so we can do some production date predictions, which may or may not work
Here is a recap of the movement first six days tracking
Code.............3000....3100....3300... .3400....3800*...... other
August 29..........85.......56.......36........ 47.......17..............2
August 30..........85.......56.......33........ 44.......20..............2
August 31..........85.......56.......27........ 51.......20..............1
Sept 4...............85.......56.......27.... ....46.......25..............1
Sept 5...............86.........0.......83... .....38.......33..............0
Sept 6...............86.........0.......79... .....36.......39..............0
*includes 4B00
Code 3400 split....< August 29.... August 29 and later
August 29.........................43........... ............4
August 30.........................40........... ............4
August 31.........................41........... ...........10
Sept 4..............................36....... ...............10
Sept 5..............................28....... ...............10
Sept 6..............................22....... ...............14
Highest VIN
August 23......22
August 24......40
August 29.....177
August 30.....240
Sept 4..........368
Sept 5..........432
Sept 6..........501
By my calculations the plant has been building cars for 10 work days and they are now building about 60 a day. About 6 a day are from GMer's list.
So far it seems to be first in first out from the 3400 list, which says the 22 cars into 3400 before August 29 might be built next week and the 14 others plus 6 from the 3300 list the following week.
For computer geeks like me, here is the worksheet I’m building with some dates. Note there is some data there in red, it is from your input rather than GMers. The stats above just represent GMer's data.
http://webpages.charter.net/weshelto...r-status-d.xls
If this thread gets any following I will follow GMer’s example and revise the original post when things change.
Many of us are addicted to the Herculean task that GMer is accomplishing for us.
There are 240 lucky ones who got in early and get to watch our orders progress (or not) thru the system. Being one of them I just had to recap the changes and start to accumulate some data so we can do some production date predictions, which may or may not work
Here is a recap of the movement first six days tracking
Code.............3000....3100....3300... .3400....3800*...... other
August 29..........85.......56.......36........ 47.......17..............2
August 30..........85.......56.......33........ 44.......20..............2
August 31..........85.......56.......27........ 51.......20..............1
Sept 4...............85.......56.......27.... ....46.......25..............1
Sept 5...............86.........0.......83... .....38.......33..............0
Sept 6...............86.........0.......79... .....36.......39..............0
*includes 4B00
Code 3400 split....< August 29.... August 29 and later
August 29.........................43........... ............4
August 30.........................40........... ............4
August 31.........................41........... ...........10
Sept 4..............................36....... ...............10
Sept 5..............................28....... ...............10
Sept 6..............................22....... ...............14
Highest VIN
August 23......22
August 24......40
August 29.....177
August 30.....240
Sept 4..........368
Sept 5..........432
Sept 6..........501
By my calculations the plant has been building cars for 10 work days and they are now building about 60 a day. About 6 a day are from GMer's list.
So far it seems to be first in first out from the 3400 list, which says the 22 cars into 3400 before August 29 might be built next week and the 14 others plus 6 from the 3300 list the following week.
For computer geeks like me, here is the worksheet I’m building with some dates. Note there is some data there in red, it is from your input rather than GMers. The stats above just represent GMer's data.
http://webpages.charter.net/weshelto...r-status-d.xls
If this thread gets any following I will follow GMer’s example and revise the original post when things change.
Last edited by H101; 09-06-2013 at 03:15 PM. Reason: Update
09-01-2013, 02:38 AM
#2
Melting Slicks
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St. Jude Donor '06
Many of us are addicted to the Herculean task that GMer is accomplishing for us.
There are 240 lucky ones who got in early and get to watch our orders progress (or not) thru the system. Being one of them I just had to recap the changes and start to accumulate some data so we can do some production date predictions, which may or may not work
Here is a recap of the movement first three days tracking
Code.............3000...3100...3300...34 00...3800*.. other
August 29 .........85.....56......36.......44..... .17......2
August 30..........85.....56......33.......44.. ....20......2
August 31..........85.....56......27.......51.. ....20......1
*includes 4B00
Highest VIN
August 23......22
August 24......40
August 29.....177
August 30.....240
For computer geeks like me, here is the worksheet I’m building with some dates.
http://webpages.charter.net/weshelto...r-status-d.xls
If this thread gets any following I will follow GMer’s example and revise the original post when things change.
As I’ve said on other posts…. far too much time on my hands
There are 240 lucky ones who got in early and get to watch our orders progress (or not) thru the system. Being one of them I just had to recap the changes and start to accumulate some data so we can do some production date predictions, which may or may not work
Here is a recap of the movement first three days tracking
Code.............3000...3100...3300...34 00...3800*.. other
August 29 .........85.....56......36.......44..... .17......2
August 30..........85.....56......33.......44.. ....20......2
August 31..........85.....56......27.......51.. ....20......1
*includes 4B00
Highest VIN
August 23......22
August 24......40
August 29.....177
August 30.....240
For computer geeks like me, here is the worksheet I’m building with some dates.
http://webpages.charter.net/weshelto...r-status-d.xls
If this thread gets any following I will follow GMer’s example and revise the original post when things change.
As I’ve said on other posts…. far too much time on my hands
09-01-2013, 10:34 AM
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It will also be interesting to watch when another chunk of 3000 cars move up to 3300... my guess is that may be a batch thing while the 3300, 3400 and 3800 codes seem to move on a daily basis.
The linked worksheet shows progression thru the codes by date... so far very limited data cuz I just started the capture process... but you can see my car went to 3000 on July 17 and to 3400 on August 28. The dates not shown are I ordered it on January 26 I was on the second consensus in June.
Of course that brings up the question why am I moving and lots of others are "stuck". I'm sure the two guys ahead of me at my dealer are asking that. I know at least one of them has carbon fiber trim... and my guess is that they both have carbon fiber trim and/or unpainted tops.
My order is NRB, Kalahari 2LT (suede insert), Z52, MRC. NPP and Nav.
Ahhhh... yet another gaze into the crystal ball.
09-01-2013, 11:07 AM
#7
Burning Brakes
I will be watching closely.
09-01-2013, 11:29 AM
#8
Drifting
Should be interesting....
I went 3800 early last week and have both CF roof and Trim.
Of course that brings up the question why am I moving and lots of others are "stuck". I'm sure the two guys ahead of me at my dealer are asking that. I know at least one of them has carbon fiber trim... and my guess is that they both have carbon fiber trim and/or unpainted tops.
My order is NRB, Kalahari 2LT (suede insert), Z52, MRC. NPP and Nav.
Ahhhh... yet another gaze into the crystal ball.
My order is NRB, Kalahari 2LT (suede insert), Z52, MRC. NPP and Nav.
Ahhhh... yet another gaze into the crystal ball.
09-01-2013, 01:59 PM
#10
Pro
It really depends on the dealer you choose and IF they have an allocation and IF they tell you the truth about it. I would try a dealer that is a sponsor on this board.
09-01-2013, 02:13 PM
#11
Advanced
I'm just trying to get a idea,I have other cars to drive and don't mind the wait.
09-01-2013, 02:17 PM
#12
Race Director
09-02-2013, 10:37 PM
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Did some analysis.... far too much time on my hands....
Assuming a four day work week, I think there have been six work days since the first 3800 was reported. The first three days averaged around 20-25 cars a day. The last three seem to be hitting 50-60 cars a day.
None of our group's orders have moved up to 3300 during the last three work days, the number of 3300s has dropped by nine, the number of 3400s has increased by 7, the number of 3800 increased by 3 (one unidentified code became a 3800). At some point, maybe once a week my guess is that a batch of 3000s will move up. I'll bet the other codes will continue to shuffle on a daily basis.
I believe our group of 240 represented about 10% of the cars in code 3000 or above when GMer had to stop adding to the list. I think that sample percentage will be somewhat valid for the code 3800 for several weeks. Sure is going to be interesting to watch.
Anyone who would like to take a look at the worksheet in post #1 and comment, I would love the feedback. My statistics professors (from long ago) are spinning in their graves as they read this.
Assuming a four day work week, I think there have been six work days since the first 3800 was reported. The first three days averaged around 20-25 cars a day. The last three seem to be hitting 50-60 cars a day.
None of our group's orders have moved up to 3300 during the last three work days, the number of 3300s has dropped by nine, the number of 3400s has increased by 7, the number of 3800 increased by 3 (one unidentified code became a 3800). At some point, maybe once a week my guess is that a batch of 3000s will move up. I'll bet the other codes will continue to shuffle on a daily basis.
I believe our group of 240 represented about 10% of the cars in code 3000 or above when GMer had to stop adding to the list. I think that sample percentage will be somewhat valid for the code 3800 for several weeks. Sure is going to be interesting to watch.
Anyone who would like to take a look at the worksheet in post #1 and comment, I would love the feedback. My statistics professors (from long ago) are spinning in their graves as they read this.
09-02-2013, 10:59 PM
#15
Safety Car
Could it be that there were 30 folks who moved to 3800 status on Friday who never post on this forum (heck, 50% of Corvette owners do not even know,that there are Corvette forums).
09-02-2013, 11:09 PM
#16
Safety Car
09-03-2013, 10:04 AM
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My guess is that closer to 50-60 moved to 3800 last Friday (well, actually last Thursday and reported by GMer on Friday). Only three of our 240 moved, but that is how sampling works :-)
